The EUR/USD went into the weekend near the 1.03080 mark, this briefly testing a low around the 1.02235 ratio on Thursday while thin trading conditions prevailed.
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Traders of the EUR/USD should be braced for an immediate test of sentiment upon Monday’s opening. Full volumes are set to return for the first time in nearly two weeks following the holiday season and the EUR has stood out as a loser among the major currencies. The drop in value on Thursday raised nervous alarm bells, but the EUR/USD was able to recover from the momentary test of the 1.02235 vicinity.
Speculators will get economic data this coming week to put there teeth into, this besides the existing behavioral sentiment which has seen USD centric strength cause problems for the EUR/USD. The currency pair is now languishing near lows seen in December of 2022. As financial institutions return from their long holidays they will face a true test of their outlooks.
Fear of Near-Term Concerns Meshing into Mid-Term Outlook
The ability of the EUR/USD to trend lower the past two weeks and continue to create more demonstrative depths is a troubling sign for speculators who prefer to be buyers of the currency pair. The notion that short and near-term concerns surrounding the sentiment of the EUR/USD are starting to impact mid-term trading strategies is legitimate. The potential that existing nervousness regarding European economic conditions compared to U.S data, and the coming Trump administration will combine to make a difficult road for the EUR to gain is viable.
While the ECB and Fed both lowered their interest rates in December with matching 0.25 basis point cuts, the possibility the ECB may have to be more dovish than the Fed is troubling EUR/USD traders. The 1.03000 level being penetrated this past Thursday was a warning sign. Yes, the currency pair did climb back above the mark and finished the week near 1.03080, but no bullish parades will be started for the EUR/USD with any confidence in the coming days. While the currency pair does look oversold from a historical perspective, this is not the first time the EUR/USD has tested these depths.
U.S Non-Farm Employment Change Statistics
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Early data tomorrow via the German CPI statistics will be an intriguing result for EUR/USD traders to cling onto regarding sentiment. Then speculators will start to focus on the incoming jobs data which will come from the U.S and climax on Friday with the Non-Farm Employment Change figures.
- Strong jobs numbers from the U.S would likely cause more headwinds for the EUR/USD.
- However, speculators betting on the outcome from the U.S jobs numbers should be cautious, particularly because the past couple of months have provided surprise results and affected Forex conditions.
- Traders betting that a reversal higher must take place should not be too confident, and allow for the possibility of more choppiness in the EUR/USD early this week.
- If the 1.03000 level falters and sees sustained trading below, this would not be a good sign for EUR/USD bullishness to suddenly emerge in a strong manner.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.02100 to 1.04350
After two full weeks of thin trading in Forex the EUR/USD will be tested on Monday and Tuesday. The price of the currency pair does look low, but betting on reversals higher to suddenly emerge may prove difficult. Retail traders may want to watch the opening of trading on Monday develop via the London markets to see where sentiment takes the EUR/USD in the first few hours of the day to gain a perspective, but there is also the return of U.S financial institutions to deal with and this could linger into Tuesday and cause volatility.
The last time the EUR/USD traded above the 1.05000 mark was on the 17th of December, since then the currency pair mostly lingered within the 1.04000 to 1.04500 ratios (with outliers) until Tuesday the 31st. The New Year’s holiday trading results which caused new lows to be seen will be tested early this coming week. Financial institutions will have their sentiment tested early and retail traders should monitor Forex, including the EUR/USD, closely.
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