Created on January 12, 2025

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WTI Crude Oil achieved another bullish move higher last week. The price of WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend near the 75.615 price. On Friday the value of the commodity was able to propel through the 75.000 level and briefly challenged the 77.000 ratio.

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While a U.S cold front may have been the talking point the previous week along with thin trading volumes, this past week heard news of U.S efforts to step up enforcement of Russian oil shipping bans.

There are also reports saying Saudi Arabia will have less supply on hand over the next month, but also rumors Iran is selling supply it stores in China have been heard. While all of this makes for interesting noise, the question speculators suddenly are faced with is if there has been a fundamental shift in outlook for WTI Crude Oil prices after months of rather polite trading.

Correlations to Broad Market Assets and WTI Crude Oil

Technically WTI Crude Oil has trended higher since the 9th of December, this after the price of the commodity touched the 66.800 vicinity testing mid-term support. The momentum upwards in WTI Crude Oil started to produce a climb the day after Christmas, and following the New Year’s holiday another boost of buying power has been seen. However, two weeks of buying in WTI Crude Oil may not be total evidence that the trend is going to remain reaching for the sky.

Within the higher elements of its mid-term price range, WTI Crude Oil now is challenging values not seen since the second week of October. In the spring and summer of 2024 WTI Crude Oil did trade above the 80.000 mark. We have seen higher prices certainly before. Values in other assets in the global market are showing signs of vulnerability and speculation too. Equities, U.S bond yields, and Forex have been problematic. The USD has been very strong since late September, but is this playing into the price of WTI Crude Oil via a correlation? Probably not.

Higher Values and a Cautious Shift Acknowledging the Trend

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The move upwards in WTI Crude Oil is noteworthy. The price velocity of WTI increased on Friday as global assets were getting battered. Tomorrow’s opening should be watched carefully.

• Traders who feel the price of WTI Crude Oil is too high should remain cautious about speculative selling.
• If the 75.000 level is sustained tomorrow and into Tuesday this could indicate some nervous buying power remains in WTI Crude Oil. 
• Speculators at least for the near-term will have to acknowledge a potential shift of sentiment that is leading to buying.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 71.750 to 77.250

Having expected a downturn in price of WTI Crude Oil following the light holiday trading did not go according to plan last week for many traders. Instead the price of the commodity was able to produce incrementally higher support ratios and the 72.500 mark proved durable and created reversals upwards. The start of trading early this week should be watched to see technically if the 75.000 mark is durable, if it proves vulnerable and the 74.000 level comes quickly into sight this might not mean additional selling power will be demonstrated quite yet.

Perhaps nervous sentiment has come into WTI Crude Oil and buyers are actively seeking supply to insure supply over the mid-term, but perhaps this is merely false narration. Technically WTI Crude Oil needs to prove it can sustain the higher prices achieved this coming week and into next, this to potentially cause a shift of outlook. Until then WTI Crude Oil still may have speculative prices produce choppiness and ignite wagers based on technical notions. However, traders should be careful and use conservative leverage if they choose to bet against the trend higher in the coming days.

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