Created on December 17, 2024

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The crypto and tech booms continue as Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 Index rise to reach new all-time high prices, accompanied by the superfood commodity cocoa.

1. Stock markets globally are mixed, but the tech-based NASDAQ 100 Index rose strongly yesterday to reach a new all-time high above 22100, and all the major US stock indices traded higher. The NASDAQ 100 Index is notably outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index to which it is usually very positively correlated. Trend and momentum traders will be interested in being long of the NASDAQ 100 which is available in futures and in more affordable ETFs such as QQQ.
2. Bitcoin is making a bullish breakout to a new all-time high above the round number at $107,000. Trend and momentum traders will be eager to be long of Bitcoin now. If buying spot Bitcoin is difficult for you, there are Bitcoin micro futures offered on the CME which are sized at only one-tenth of a Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs are also widely available, but these sometimes fail to track the underlying accurately, especially during strong bull markets like we have today.
3. Cocoa futures rose very strongly again yesterday to reach a new all-time high price above $11,000 per ton. Cocoa has seen a very strong increase in value (approximately a 40% gain) over the past few weeks, and the market will remember the spectacular rally in Cocoa in 2023 which saw the price of the superfood triple within only 4 or 5 months. Trend traders will be interested in being long of Cocoa futures. Unfortunately for retail traders, the smallest Cocoa future available has a position size of $100,000 but there is a Cocoa exchange-traded commodity (ETC) ticker COCO available on the London Stock Exchange which is very affordable. The “ETC aims to replicate the Bloomberg Cocoa Sub Total Return Index (BCOMCCTR) by tracking the Bloomberg Cocoa Sub Excess Return Index.”
4. In the Forex market, since today’s Tokyo open, the British Pound has been the biggest gainer and the Australian Dollar the biggest loser. The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a valid long-term bearish trend and made a bearish breakdown below the big round number at $1.0500 last week. The NZD/USD currency pair made a new 2-year low last week, while the USD/CAD hit a new 4-year high yesterday. The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) are generally weak, and the US Dollar is generally strong.
5. Flash PMI data released yesterday in the USA, Germany, the UK, and France showed a consistent pattern: services performed better than expected but manufacturing performed worse than expected, suggesting the services sector is in notably better shape.
6. There are two high-impact data releases scheduled for today:
   • Canadian CPI (inflation) which is expected to show a 0.1% increase over the past month.
   • US Retail Sales, which is expected to show a 0.6% increase over the past month.

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