Created on December 24, 2024

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Risk appetite continues its recovery since Friday’s US PCE data came in lower than expected, with most major equity indices trading higher in recent hours.

1. Friday’s risk rally sparked by the lower-than-expected US PCE Price Index data (the Fed’s preferred inflation metric) seems to be continuing, with most major stock indices trading higher since today’s open in Tokyo. The HSI, the NASDAQ 100, and the S&P 500 are all up so far today. Markets are expecting that the next Fed rate cut will not happen before March 2025.
2. In the Forex market, since today’s Tokyo open, trading has been quiet as we have almost reached the Christmas shutdown. The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a valid long-term bearish trend after making a strong bearish move down after the Fed meeting to trade not far from the multi-year low above $1.0300. Meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank if Australia have produced little movement in those currencies and given no real surprises, although the RBA did state that the Bank was more confident that inflation has come under control, which could make a rate hike more likely early in 2025.
3. Canadian GDP data released yesterday was stronger than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% when an increase of only 0.2% was expected.
4. The 10-Year US Treasury Yield reached a new 6-month high yesterday above 4.599%. Trend traders will be interested in being long here, but many analysts will argue this is an unlikely rate to be sustained over 10 years.
5. Cocoa futures reached a new all-time high price just below $13,000 per ton last week, although the last couple of days have seen a minor bearish retracement from the high. Cocoa has seen a very strong increase in value (approximately a 40% gain) over the past few weeks, and the market will remember the spectacular rally in Cocoa in 2023 which saw the price of the superfood triple within only 4 or 5 months. Trend traders will be interested in being long of Cocoa futures. Unfortunately for retail traders, the smallest Cocoa future available has a position size of $100,000 but there is a Cocoa exchange-traded commodity (ETC) ticker COCO available on the London Stock Exchange which is very affordable. The “ETC aims to replicate the Bloomberg Cocoa Sub Total Return Index (BCOMCCTR) by tracking the Bloomberg Cocoa Sub Excess Return Index.”
6. As it is Christmas eve, markets will probably be quiet today.

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