Created on December 24, 2024

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Canada’s GDP a Mixed Bag 

Canada posted a good news-bad news GDP (Gross Domestic Product) report yesterday. The economy climbed 0.3% month-on-month in October, following a 0.2% gain (revised from 0.1%) in September and above the market estimate of 0.1%. The acceleration was driven by an increase in manufacturing output, services activity and oil and gas extraction.

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The news was not as good for November, with GDP contracting by 0.1% month-on-month, according to an initial estimate. This marked the first decline in 11 months. The decline was driven by decreases in mining, oil and gas extraction and transportation, which were partially offset by increases in food services and accommodation.

BoC Signals “Gradual” Rate Cuts 

The Canadian economy grew at annualized rate of 1% in the third quarter, which was below the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) forecast of 1.5%. The BoC has been aggressive in its rate cutting and chopped the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% earlier this month. That marked the first time since the covid pandemic that the central bank has delivered two consecutive oversized rate cuts of 50 basis points each.

The Bank of Canada has signaled that it will continue lowering rates into 2025 but we’re unlikely to see additional 50-basis point cuts in the near-term. At the BoC meeting earlier this month, Governor Macklem said that the Bank would take a “more gradual approach to monetary policy”. This is likely to mean rate cuts in increments of 25 bp, provided that inflation and employment data comes in as expected.

More Trouble Ahead for the Loonie? 

The Canadian dollar has looked dreadful in the fourth quarter, having plunged 6.6% against its US counterpart during this time. The Canadian currency could be facing more headwinds in January. Canada’s coalition government is likely to fall if it faces a no confidence vote in parliament next month.

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US President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to slap 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, which would be a huge hit on the Canadian economy and would likely trigger a sharp spike in inflation and cause a recession. The merry Christmas season could be the calm before the storm. 

Market Reaction – Canadian Dollar Lower, Stock Market Unchanged 

The USD/CAD currency pair temporarily moved higher in response to the GDP report. In the North American session, USD/CAD traded as high as $1.4432, but later gave up its gains

The S&P/TSX Composite Index, the benchmark Canadian stock index, gained firmly over the day, closing 0.61% higher at 24,748.

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