Created on December 27, 2024

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• The US dollar rallied ever so slightly against the Mexican peso during what would have been extraordinarily quiet and thin trading on Thursday.
• That being said, I think you still have to look at this through the prism of an uptrend with the 20 pesos level perhaps offering a certain amount of support.
• This is something that I have been watching for some time now.

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Not only would it be psychologically important, but it also features an area that has seen a lot of action in both directions over the last several months. And now we have the 50 day EMA hanging around the same region as well. All things being equal, I believe that this USD/MXN pair will continue to favor the upside, but I also recognize it could be somewhat sideways between now and the Donald Trump inauguration in late January, there are a lot of questions to be asked about what the border and immigration policy is going to be, but I can assure you, it’s probably not going to favor Mexico. It just comes down to how bad is it going to be? With that being said, it does have a major influence on remittances and business that’s actually done in Mexico.

Mexico Has Its Own Issues

Compound that with the fact that the Mexican economy has been sluggish anyways, and it makes a lot of sense that the peso would continue to underperform. It’s also worth noting though, that the area between 20 pesos and 21 pesos has historically been very difficult for the dollar to break above. So, we are rapidly approaching an inflection point, but this inflection point probably doesn’t actually kick off until later in January, unless of course Trump flat out says exactly what the policy is going to be. If that moves, so will this pair, probably quickly.

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