Created on January 02, 2025

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Potential signal:

• I’m a buyer of this pair if we can get a daily close above the 21 MXN level.
• I would have a stop loss at 20.50 MXN and be aiming for 22 MXN.

• During my daily analysis of the USD/MXN pair, the first thing I notice is that we are racing toward the 21 MXN level, an area that has been important multiple times.
• Quite frankly, the Mexican peso is in a lot of trouble for a huge list of reasons.

First one obviously will be the fact that Donald Trump is going to be the next president in the United States and that will have a major influence on what happens at the border. The Mexican economy is highly sensitive to what goes on in America, and whether or not migrants are crossing the border easily to work and send back remittances. Furthermore, almost all of Mexico’s exports to end up in the United States, so if the United States becomes a little bit more aggressive in its business dealings with Mexico, the Mexicans are in serious trouble. This is more likely than not going to be the case going forward.

Technical Analysis

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The technical analysis for this pair is somewhat interesting as the 21 MXN level is a major resistance barrier that we had been playing with multiple times in the past but could not break above easily. If we do break above here, it will be assigned that the US dollar is probably going to destroy anything in the realm of the emerging markets. Quite frankly, there are plenty of fairly large currencies out there such as the Australian dollar that are suffering at the hands of the US dollar, so this is not a stretch of the imagination.

I understand that most retail traders will look at the 21 MXN level and say, “this has gone too far, and it’s going to struggle to break out.” While there is an argument to be made for the idea of resistance, the reality is that these levels do break, and when they end up breaking, the end up being big trades for long-term traders. I’m watching this pair very closely, but I suspect it will just move back and forth with the fortunes of the greenback against everything else.

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