USD/ZAR Analysis Today - 30/12: Holiday Nervousness (Chart)

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Created on December 30, 2024

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The USD/ZAR is a solid example of the broad Forex market as trading begins during this holiday week and nervousness remains a factor among financial institutions.

The USD/ZAR has begun trading this morning and is around 18.65910 depending on the bid and ask being looked at on a brokers platform.
The USD/ZAR certainly has gone higher in the past week, but the trading of the currency pair has been done in very thin markets and ones that are showing a high degree of nervousness which is translating into a strong USD across the board.

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The USD/ZAR even as it has lost value in the past handful of days remains a rather solid example of a better outlook for a currency, in this case the South African Rand, due to sentiment being generated by domestic considerations in a nation when financial institutions are feeling more confident. Yes, the USD/ZAR has lost ground the past three months, but this has correlated well to the global Forex market as USD centric strength has taken hold.

Bullish Trend in USD/ZAR Relatively Polite

Perhaps folks in South Africa are feeling a bit anxious about the loss of value in the ZAR since the end of September when the 17.10000 ratio was being flirted with and the climb upwards in the USD/ZAR since then. However, the USD/ZAR when it went to nearly 18.90000 last week when there was little to no real volume in the currency pair then reacted with selling which took it back to the 18.60000 lever rather quickly.

There is some trading in the USD/ZAR this morning and will be a bit tomorrow, but the shadow of the New Year’s holiday is certainly still a major factor. Retail traders who feel the need to trade in these thin markets need to traverse carefully because sudden spikes can certainly be produced and they tend to happen when traders are unprepared for the expensive lessons. Using too much leverage in a thin market that turns against the chosen direction of a trader is not a comfortable situation. Spreads will be wide this week via bids and asks.

USD/ZAR Near-Term Thinking and Waiting

The USD/ZAR appears to be overbought, but then again so do most major currencies against the USD at this time. The problem for all traders who are trying to attain reversals against the USD is that financial institutions are not about to suddenly become optimistic that a weaker USD is going to emerge in the next handful of days.

If a bearish trend were to emerge this holiday week it would be a surprise because it would have to take a coordinated selling attack by financial institutions who have been given impetus, and this not likely.
To put it in perspective the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers which are usually published the first Friday of the month will wait until Friday the 10th for publication.
Forex volumes will be extremely thin going into Wednesday when the global market will be mostly shuttered.