Created on December 29, 2024

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Gold

Gold markets had initially tried to rally during the previous week but had given back quite a bit of the gains as traders remained feckless in the face of higher interest rates. That being said, the gold market is facing a pretty significant uptrend line just below, and I think it works out in Gold’s favor in the short term. Whether or not it can continue to hold up remains to be seen, but as things stand right now, I still believe that the market is in a significant uptrend.

EUR/USD

The euro has had a fairly back and forth week, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that we were sitting just above significant support in the form of the 1.03 level, and of course we have had Christmas in the middle of the week. The 1.03 level underneath has to hold, because if it does not, the euro is going to get absolutely crushed. I suspect that the next couple of weeks will be spent going back and forth between the 1.03 level in the bottom, and the 1.06 level on the top.

GBP/USD

The British pound drifted a little bit lower to test the 1.25 level before bouncing a bit. That being said, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy and somewhat range bound as most traders will be worried about the holiday over the next week, not necessarily anything going on in the markets. The 1.2750 level above offers significant resistance in the form of the 200 Week EMA, the 50 Week EMA, and of course previous resistance in and of itself. I anticipate more sideways action here, just as we are likely to see in the EUR/USD pair.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin initially tried to break above the $100,000 level for the week but has since failed to follow through. With this being the case, it ended up forming a bit of a weak looking candlestick, perhaps suggesting that we are about to see a bit of a pullback. I would anticipate quite a bit of support near the $90,000 level though, so I think more than anything else we are going to see sideways action over the next couple of weeks, but if we were to break down below the $80,000 level, that almost certainly opens up the possibility of buying as low as $74,000.

Silver

Silver continues to look miserable, as it tried to rally a bit during the trading week but could not break above the $30 level. Furthermore, there is the previous trendline sitting just above that offers a bit of downward pressure as well, but we do have the 50 Week EMA sitting at the bottom of the candlestick from the previous week, so there might be some hope. If we break down below the 50 Week EMA, I suspect this market plunges quite a bit, perhaps down to the $26 level, maybe even the $25 level. Higher interest rates in America continue to be a major issue for this market.

DAX

The German index has gone back and forth this week, doing almost nothing, which does make quite a bit of sense considering that Germany was closed not only on Christmas Day, but also on Christmas Eve, basically making the markets immobile. The €19,750 level continues to be an area of interest, and it’ll be interesting to see how we open up. If we can bounce from here, then the market could very well go looking to the €20,500 level. If we cannot, and end up breaking down, the €19,000 level might be the next stop.

USD/MXN

The US dollar has rallied significantly against the lowly Mexican peso during the week again, but unlike the last couple of weeks, it has actually hung on to the gains. Because of this, it looks like we are going to continue to consolidate between 20 pesos on the bottom, and 21 paces on the top. With the incoming trump administration, most of what we will see here will be based upon comments that he makes as far as what he’s going to do with the border. Furthermore, we also have a potential tariff war with Mexico, which will absolutely wipe out the Mexican economy if it moves forward. I remain bullish, but I recognize that we are in a range at the moment.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 initially tried to rally for the week but continues to see the 22,000 level as a significant barrier. Because of this, I’m not necessarily thinking that we will go higher anytime soon, but with the holiday it’s very likely that we will probably go sideways overall. The 21,000 level underneath should offer support, but if we were to break down below there then I think the 20,000 level is the next target.

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