Created on December 31, 2024

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• During my daily analysis of Bitcoin, the first thing I see is that we are in fact struggling a bit.
• It’s worth noting that we recently have seen a lot of noise in this market, and perhaps a little bit of a “get back” due to the fact that Bitcoin had rallied so viciously earlier in the year.
• Yes, we now have the ETF in full effect, but we also have to keep in mind that professional traders don’t typically chase moves like this, rather they wait for the market to stabilize before putting money to work.
• Because of this, it does not surprise me at all that we find ourselves trading in the same range that we have been in for the better part of 6 weeks.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is bullish in the long term, but in the short term we are starting to see a little bit of sideways action. This does make a certain amount of sense considering that market participants continue to look at this through the prism of a market that is overbought, and of course a market that will have to deal with the idea of higher interest rates in the United States. While most Bitcoin traders don’t necessarily pay close attention to interest rate markets, they do so at their own peril. After all, institutional traders will pay close attention to the so-called “risk-free rate”, which is at 4.6% or so at the moment via the 10 year note. In other words, they prefer not to take risk if they can make a guaranteed return.

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Granted, bitcoin will more likely than not beat that hands down, but in the short term is difficult to get overly excited about various risk appetite assets not just this one. With this being the case, I think you need to look at this as a market that will eventually sort itself out, but right now we are still in a scenario where buying on the dips will more likely than not end up being the case going forward.

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