Created on December 19, 2024

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• The crude oil markets in the United States, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market, initially rally during the trading session to break well above the 50 Day EMA but ended up pulling back quite significantly during the session to form a less than attractive candlestick.
• That being said, I don’t know if much has changed in my assessment of this market, because we have to keep in mind there was an FOMC meeting that of course would cause a lot of noise.

Technical Analysis

It’s worth noting that the technical analysis for this pair is somewhat sideways, and of course neutral. This makes a lot of sense, because we are trying to sort out whether or not inflation is going to increase, which obviously is a major component to the oil market. Beyond that, we also have to keep in mind that there are a lot of geopolitical concerns in the Middle East that could keep the market somewhat lightly, so with all that being said I think you’ve got a situation where you could get some geopolitical interference in this market, but right now I think what we’ve got is what could be thought of as a “bottoming process” going on.

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The $65 level continues to be a major support level, while the $72.50 level above continues to be a major resistance barrier. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked of the market, but we also should keep in mind that the liquidity is probably going to shrink over the next week or so, as we head into the holidays. With this, I’m not expecting much, and I think we are simply going to be stuck with the range that we have been in in the short-term, but sometime in January I would anticipate that the market would probably start rallying to the upside as inflation doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.

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