• The US will release key figures showing the country’s employment state.

• Markets remain uncertain about the looming shift in leadership in the US.

• Economists expect inflation in Australia to increase by 2.2%.

The AUD/USD forecast presents bullish sentiment on Monday. The Aussie rebounded as the dollar gave up some of its recent gains ahead of key economic data this week. Meanwhile, market participants also look forward to Australia’s consumer inflation report for clues on RBA rate cuts.

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The greenback eased Monday as traders awaited more clues on the Fed’s easing policy this year. The US will release key figures showing the country’s employment state. Market participants will mainly focus on the nonfarm payrolls that will impact the outlook for Fed rate cuts. An upbeat report will support the forecast for only two rate cuts this year. On the other hand, cracks in the labor market might convince policymakers to implement more rate cuts, weighing on the dollar. 

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Meanwhile, markets remain uncertain about the looming shift in leadership in the US. Although Trump has openly pronounced his policy plans, things might be different when he takes office later this month. 

Elsewhere, Australia will release its consumer inflation report this week, guiding the outlook for RBA rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia might be the last major central bank to start lowering borrowing costs. Economists expect inflation to increase by 2.2%, compared to a previous reading of 2.1%. 

AUD/USD key events today

Market participants do not expect any significant reports from the US or Australia today.

AUD/USD technical forecast: Breaks above the 30-SMA

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after failing to breach the 0.6200 support level. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, indicating solid bullish momentum. 

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Initially, AUD/USD traded in a downtrend that slowed near the 0.6200 support level. Here, bears lost enthusiasm, and the price started moving in a range. At the same time, the RSI made a bullish divergence, showing weaker bearish momentum. This allowed bulls to take charge by breaching the 30-SMA resistance. 

However, they must now break above previous highs to start an uptrend. Therefore, the price will target the 0.6275 resistance level. A break above will confirm an uptrend. On the other hand, if the resistance holds firm, bears might resume the downtrend.

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