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The dollar opened the session higher following inflation and employment data. The currency had risen by 0.33%, reaching R$ 6.1977.

The currency reacted to the release of the IPCA-15, the official inflation preview, which increased by 0.34% month-over-month, lower than the 0.44% projections made by analysts surveyed media outlets. Despite this, the indicator closed the year at 4.71%, above the upper limit of the target.

USD/BRL

The labor market also saw a new low for the unemployment rate in November, which stood at 6.1%.

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A strong job market, high dollar, and rising inflation contribute to the outlook for interest rate hikes in 2025, which continues to concern market analysts.

The fiscal deficit in Brazil is leading to depreciation of the real by creating economic instability and reducing investor confidence. When the government spends more than it earns, it is increasing borrowing, which raises concerns about the country’s ability to repay its debt. This uncertainty is driving investors away, putting downward pressure on the currency.

Interest Rates and Projections

Interest rates were falling across the curve. The market reacted to the release of the IPCA-15 data. The official inflation preview showed a 0.34% increase in December, a slowdown from the 0.62% rise seen the previous month.

The interbank deposit rate (DI) for January 2026 rose to 15.26% (compared to the 15.41% closing on Thursday); For January 2027, the rate was higher at 15.575% (compared to 15.70% at the close); For January 2028, the rate increased to 15.44% (compared to 15.59% at the close); For January 2029, the rate rose to 15.275% (compared to 15.395% at the close); And for January 2030, the rate climbed to 15.13% (compared to 15.27% at the close).

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.