The past week of trading in Coffee Arabica saw relatively calm highs of nearly 330.90 on Thursday, which were preceded by lows around 313.25 on Tuesday – a price not seen since the first week of December.
Coffee Arabica was able to break lower early this past week and penetrate the 320.00 level, the commodity hit a depth of 313.25 on Tuesday. However, after sustaining this lower depth and proving that the price of the commodity is not a constant upwards movement, Coffee Arabica in fact did rise late in the day and was again back above the 320.00 mark.
The Coffee Arabica market was closed on New Year’s Day, and upon opening on Thursday saw additional buying which quickly tested the 327.00 ratio, then created choppy conditions testing support again within the vicinity of 321.00 to 320.50, and then touched its high for the week near 330.90. However, trading volumes in Coffee Arabica like most global assets were thin and results have to be given skeptical treatment. Coffee Arabica went into this weekend near a price of 320.640 importantly.
Support in Sight and Full Trading Volume for Coffee Arabica Coming
Intriguingly, Coffee Arabica finished the week of trading near important support levels again. The advent of full volumes being seen in commodity trading in the coming days will certainly test the results of last week. The ability to challenge the 313.25 ratio last Tuesday may be a target for some overly ambitious speculators, but first Coffee Arabica needs to prove it can sustain values below the 320.00 mark once again. And that is no sure thing.
The Coffee Arabica market has been within the grasp of a long-term drive upwards that has shown lower reversals on occasion. While it is tempting to believe last week’s test of lower values not seen since the first week of December is an early sign of a shift in sentiment among large players in the Coffee sector, there are no guarantees. In fact, there are clear caution signs that retail traders should not get too enthused about a potential downturn quite yet. The lack of large volume last week makes wagering on technical charts of merely a handful of days quite problematic and untrustworthy.
The Trend in Coffee Arabica and the New Year
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The long road upwards achieved in Coffee Arabica may not be path day traders should fight quite yet. The New Year will certainly provide opportunities for a potential shift in trend, but large players returning to their offices in the next few days will be the ones who drive the value train.
- If Coffee Arabica starts this coming week above the 320.00 mark and begins to show signs of creating more value, day traders may actually have to consider the potential of higher moves developing.
- The Coffee market has proven dangerous for sellers over the past year, and any attempts of trying to jump on a downwards reversal quite yet may be too much of a wager.
- Retail traders are reminded to keep their positions realistic via quick hitting targets that do not try to anticipate a momentous shift quite yet.
Coffee Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for Coffee is 306.10 to 331.00
The notion that Coffee Arabica produced a rather calm week of result which matched expectations is nice, but speculators should never get too comfortable with the commodity. The return of large players and dynamic price action is almost a certainty in the coming days. The test of lows was encouraging for those who believe a downturn is going to eventually be sustained, but the reversal higher on Thursday was a reminder that being over-confident is dangerous.
The opening for Coffee Arabica on Monday and Tuesday of this coming week should provide clues about sentiment. A move below the 320.00 mark early this week would be an intriguing sign, but until prices are sustained below this depth and the 310.00 level proves vulnerable, traders should remain suspicious. The trend higher in Coffee Arabica remains a fear that needs to be given respect.
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