eth-usd
Skerdian Meta•Thursday, January 2, 2025•3 min read
Add an article to your
Reading List
Register now to be able to add articles to your reading list.
”
aria-hidden=”true”>
Share in Facebook
“>
Today we start 2025 with a round of Manufacturing data from around the globe, as financial markets reopen after the New Year holiday.
In 2024, there were two main themes in financial markets, the central banks reversing their policies and starting to ease the monetary policy and Donald Trump’s presidential victory. Both events favoured the US dollar, which ended the year higher against all major currencies, with EUR/USD closing 2024 7 cents lower, after opening above 1.10 and closing below 1.04.
Xem thêm : Santa Claus rally over but indices still bullish, forex trading short on Silver XAG/USD [Video]
USD/JPY also ended higher, despite a 20 cent dive in summer. Stock markets continued the relentless rally, with the S&P 500 climbing above 6,000 points, while Nasdaq climbed above 20,000points. Cryptocurrencies also had a great year, going through a surge in the first few months of 2024, then enjoying another rally in Q4, with the new crypto-friendly US administration and the Ripple legal victory against SEC.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today and tomorrow the volatility is expected to be low as most traders are still in holiday, although liquidity remains thin too. The main release will be the US unemployment claims, however, we have many manufacturing reports released from Europe and the US, all expected to show that the activity in this sector remain in recession.
Early in the morning we had the Manufacturing PMI from Australia, which confirmed that, showing that activity fell deeper in recession in December. Australia’s final manufacturing PMI for December 2024 dropped to 47.8, down from 49.4 in November and below the preliminary estimate of 48.2. This marked the eleventh consecutive month of contraction, signaling a further decline in manufacturing conditions. The sharper downturn was driven by steeper declines in production and new orders, including exports.
Weakened demand from key export markets such as the U.S., Europe, Asia, and New Zealand, along with high domestic interest rates, contributed to the slump. Manufacturers faced increasing input costs due to rising material, energy, and shipping expenses, as well as supply chain disruptions that extended vendor lead times. To offset these pressures, businesses raised their output prices, with inflation reaching its highest level since October. Despite this, price growth remained below the long-term average, indicating challenges in fully passing on costs to customers.
Last year the volatility in the markets was pretty high, with some enormous moves in JPY pairs, Gold stock markets and cryptocurrencies. We opened close to 1,000 trading signals in total, with more than 65% of the trades ending up in profit, giving us a risk/reward ratio of more than 2:1.
Gold Retests 100 Daily SMA
Gold’s sharp price swings continue to mirror evolving expectations around monetary policy. Last week, prices tumbled by $100 after failing to surpass the key $2,725 resistance level. This decline was fueled by robust U.S. services PMI data and anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which intensified bearish sentiment. Adding to the downside, gold fell below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has since acted as a resistance point, thwarting several recovery attempts, including one on Friday. The downward momentum extended further on Wednesday, with prices slipping below the $2,600 mark amid persistent selling pressure. This deepening decline underscores the market’s sensitivity to shifts in monetary policy and macroeconomic indicators. Traders face heightened uncertainty as they navigate the ongoing volatility, highlighting gold’s susceptibility to rapid changes in the broader economic landscape.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
MAs Keeping USD/CHF on An Uptrend
Xem thêm : Canadian Dollar Eyes GDP – Action Forex
USD/CHF continues to remain on a strong bullish trend, having broken above the 0.90 level in December, as safe havens get beaten up, confirmed by the decline in Gold and the surge in USD/JPY. Moving averages are doing a good job acting as support on the H4 chart, with the 20 SMA (gray) taking ovr recently, confirming the strong upside bias.
USD/CHF – H4 Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
The $100K Turns Into Resistance for Bitcoin
Bitcoin experienced a sharp rally early in the week, surging to $108,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision. However, following a 25 basis point rate cut, the cryptocurrency lost momentum, falling below $100,000 and retreating further into the low $90,000s. Attempts to recover above $95,000 were short-lived, with $90,000 now acting as a key resistance zone despite brief support-driven rebounds above $100,000.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Heads Toward $3,500 Again
Ethereum also showed significant price swings, rallying from $3,000 to nearly $4,000 midweek. Despite the strong start, it struggled to sustain gains above the $4,000 level after Monday’s initial rise. By the end of the week, Ethereum had dropped below $3,500, deepening its losses.
ETH/USD – Daily chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
Nguồn: https://cumlaude.fun
Danh mục: News
![An employee arranges stacks of bank notes at Hana Bank's Counterfeit Notes Response Center in Jung District, central Seoul, on Jan. 6. [NEWS1]](https://cumlaude.fun/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Koreas-forex-reserves-record-first-rebound-in-three-months-300x300.jpg)
