The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision today at 21:00 GMT+2, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell holding a press conference 30 minutes later. According to Forex Factory, the market expects a rate cut to 4.25%-4.50% from the current 4.50%-4.75%.

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Analysts at Apollo Global Management, in their Economic Outlook, predict:

→ In 2025, the Fed will continue lowering rates but at a slower pace than the market anticipates;

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→ By the end of 2025, the rate is expected to settle at 4.0%.

In anticipation of today’s decision, the currency markets are experiencing a period of calm.

The technical analysis of the EUR/USD chart shows that the pair consolidates between the upper boundary of a descending channel and the lower black support line, forming a narrowing triangle pattern (highlighted in purple).

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Today’s Fed meeting could trigger a surge in volatility, potentially driving sharp movements in USD pairs. For EUR/USD, opposite scenarios are possible:

→ An upward movement with a bullish breakout of the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel;

→ Continuation of the downtrend with a breakout below the lower black support line.

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