Created on December 23, 2024

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• What markets rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Friday, breaking above the top of the inverted hammer from the Thursday session.
• This is a very bullish sign and suggest that perhaps we could see a bit of follow through.
• Whether or not that actually happens remains to be seen, but at this point in time it is worth noting that at least some animal spirits have returned.

I think given enough time, the market will probably go higher, but I also recognize the fact that at this time of year, there is a significant concern when it comes to volume. After all, most traders will be worried about the holidays and not so much about the trading markets. Ultimately, this is a situation where short sellers probably aren’t willing to be short of anything over the market holidays, and therefore I think it makes a certain amount of sense that we got a relief rally. However, I also recognize that the market had been bullish before, so it makes quite a bit of sense that we will eventually see the attitude creep into the market.

Technical Analysis

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The gold market breaking above the top of a significant inverted hammer is of course a very bullish sign, and then after that we have the 50 Day EMA above, which would be a bit of a barrier that a lot of people would be paying close attention to. If we break above there, then it opens up the possibility of the gold market going to the $2725 level. Anything above that level would break the back of a “double top”, as we have recently seen that area offer noisy trading. If we break above that, then we are free to go to the all-time highs again.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the $2550 level, then it’s possible that the market drops significantly, although the 200 Day EMA could come into the picture. As things stand right now, I prefer to be a buyer of gold than a seller, although I’m not extremely bullish either.

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