Created on December 26, 2024

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Potential Signal:

• If gold manages to break above the 50 Day EMA, roughly $2635 on a daily close, I would be a buyer.
• However, I would only buy if the 10 year yield is starting to drop.
• Keep an eye on both.

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During my daily analysis of the commodity markets, the gold market looks somewhat stable, despite the fact that it was Christmas Eve, and of course liquidity might’ve been almost nonexistent.

Because of this, think you get a situation where traders will read only so much into the action on Tuesday, and it’s probably worth noting that the fundamentals of course are a bit mixed when it comes to the gold market, so that has a major influence on what happens next.

Interest rates in the United States continues to climb, and that of course is a major issue for precious metals. Remember, it’s easier to store bonds electronically and get a guaranteed interest rate payment than it is to store gold and pay a massive amount for storage. Most retail traders forget about this, but quite often large firms will take physical metal under control. Furthermore, central banks sometimes will pay attention to price in order to buy more, but at this point in time the market is simply gone sideways over the last month or so.

Technical Analysis

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The technical analysis for the gold market is rather flat and uninteresting, as the market has been trying to carve out a range for a while, with the $2700 level above even going so far as to form a double top over the last several weeks. We do have a trendline underneath, which coincides roughly with the $2600 level, so it’ll be interesting to see if that holds. My suspicion is though that the trendline does not hold, mainly due to the fact that we just won’t have the liquidity to make it important. I think we just drift through the trendline and try to sort things out after New Year’s Day.

Keep an eye on the 10 year yield in the United States, because if it starts to drop, especially if it starts to drop rapidly, then you have a real possibility of gold rallying. Until then, I think it will probably be somewhat difficult for the buyers to get overly aggressive, but a break above the 50 Day EMA would be a good start at this point.

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