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US stocks are heading further down this week, following a cryptocurrency crash and a poor “Santa Claus rally” that has not gone according to expectations.
Typically, the last seven days of the year tend to be a positive stretch of trading on the stock market and close to the year with a bang, but that does not appear to be the case for 2024. It looks like the year will close off with declining stocks and low indices, if Monday evening’s readings are any indication.
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On Monday, the markets closed low as trading finished for the second to last day of the year. The Dow Jones fell by 0.97%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.07%. The Nasdaq Composite fell as well, losing 1.19%. Even though the tech-centered index has led the way in the market with greater gains than its rivals, it has lost much for that progress as the year is winding down.
Investors should note that the Santa Clause rally did not happen last year either, and that could simply be due to post-covid factors. This year, it is a little harder to pin down but is likely due to a correction taking place after the markets shot up following Donald Trump’s election win for the US presidency.
How New Year’s Eve Is Shaping Up
We anticipate that his last day of trading for the year will be mostly subdued. There is little new economic data to go through and factor into the trading. The first day of the year will see the stock markets close down for the holiday. That leaves little incentive for investors to do very much today.
There is likely to be a push on some sectors of the market as investors try to get in a last trade or two before the physical year closes, but the savvy investors will hold back and wait for the market to become a more beneficial environment for trading. Other than the calendar year ending, there is no real incentive for traders to buy up stock on Tuesday as opposed to Thursday. If they do wait the holiday out, they will likely have a better idea of where the market is headed and which stocks would be good investment opportunities.
Over the last weekend, the stock market indices closed low, hurt by the 10-year Treasury yields increasing by 40 basis points. Also, the most recent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve was not as pronounced as investors had hoped, leaving the market with little reason to climb sharply like it had for the last interest rate cut.
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We do expect the stock market to rally soon, but not in time to close out 2024. Instead, investors are awaiting a major surge that is expected close to Trump’s swearing in on January 20th.
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