Created on January 12, 2025

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• The US dollar has rallied rather significantly against the peso on Friday, which makes quite a bit of sense considering that the US jobs report came out much hotter than anticipated, and therefore it’s very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will be willing or even able to cut rates anytime soon.
• This of course has a major influence on the US dollar, which will strengthen against almost anything and everything, and that includes the Mexican peso.
• The Mexican peso, of course, represents an economy that is struggling at the moment.

And if there are, in fact, tariffs going to be levied on Mexico, that could really cause chaos in Mexico. So, at this point in time, we’ll have to watch what the Trump administration does. And the next two weeks, of course, will be a lot of sitting around and trying to figure that out as the administration doesn’t get sworn in until the 20th.

Current Range

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Currently, we are bouncing around a consolidation area at a very high level between 20 pesos on the bottom and 21 pesos on the top. This is an area that if we break out of to the upside, it could signal that the US dollar is going to really do some major damage to the peso even more than we’ve seen previously. There is an uptrend line that’s coming into the picture and offering support every time we dip, so that’s worth watching. And it’s also worth watching that the 50-day EMA sits right along that uptrend line as well. All things being equal, I think this is a scenario where you have to be very cautious, but optimistic. If we can get that daily close above 21 pesos, I think the US dollar is really going to start climbing and could go all the way to the 25 pesos level. As things stand right now, I don’t have any interest in shorting the spare, but you have to keep an open mind.

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