Created on January 14, 2025

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Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 96,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 86,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 85,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 96,000.

The BTC/USD pair dived and reached a low of 88,913 on Monday as most risky assets crashed amid the rising bond yields. Bitcoin has moved into a technical correction, falling by 17.7% from its highest level in December. It is hovering near its lowest swing since November last year.

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Bitcoin’s crash mirrored that of other risky assets like stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose by 150 points, while the Dow Jones fell by 15 points. Also, the US dollar index (DXY) jumped by 20 basis points to $109.70.

This performance is mostly due to analysts’ anticipation that inflation will remain substantially higher this year as the California wildfires continue. These fires will likely lead to higher household goods, construction, and insurance inflation in the biggest American state.

The other catalyst for inflation will be Donald Trump’s policies. He has pledged to slash taxes, deport millions of undocumented migrants, and raise tariffs on most imported goods. As such, analysts anticipate that inflation will remain above the Fed’s target of 2.0% for longer than expected.

The US will publish the latest inflation numbers on Wednesday. Economists expect the numbers to reveal that the headline CPI fell rose to 2.9%, while the core figure remained above 3.3%. Bitcoin and other coins will likely fall if inflation exceeds expectations.

The other big catalyst for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be the upcoming Donald Trump inauguration. Some analysts anticipate that he will sign some executive orders related to the crypto industry.

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Trump has also pledged to implement friendly policies in the crypto industry as he hopes to make the US the crypto capital of the world.

BTC/USD technical analysis

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin has moved sideways in the past few weeks. It found substantial support at $90,952, which it has failed to move below since November. On Monday, it made a brief false breakout below that level as it dropped to a low of 88,915, which coincided with the strong pivot reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines tool.

Bitcoin has remained above the 100-day moving average, indicating that the bullish trend is still intact. It has also formed a small hammer candlestick pattern, a popular reversal sign.

Therefore, Bitcoin will likely have a bullish breakout as bulls target the next point at 96,000. However, a drop below Monday’s low will confirm the bearish trend and point to more downside this week.

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