- For three consecutive trading sessions, gold prices have been trying to rebound to recover the losses of the previous week, which extended to the support level of $2,583 per ounce.
- The rebound gains, coinciding with the halt of the US dollar’s gains, did not exceed the resistance level of $2,633 per ounce before stabilizing around $2,611 per ounce at the time of writing this analysis.
- As mentioned before, the gold price index may move in narrow ranges amid weak liquidity in the markets due to Christmas holidays.
Will the Gold Price Rise Tomorrow?
According to gold trading company platforms, spot gold prices may continue to rise if the US dollar retreats from its current two-year high. Recently, the price of gold ounce has recovered with the decline in the US dollar price following the positive US inflation report for personal consumption expenditures, which renewed hopes for further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve in 2025.
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Meanwhile, this development came after days when the Federal Reserve indicated a measured pace of future US interest rate cuts, pushing gold prices to a monthly low. At the same time, near-term gold price expectations may face further challenges from weak physical demand in the major consumer India, as government officials expect a sharp decline in gold imports in December.
The US Dollar Index Near a Two-Year High
Furthermore, the performance of the gold market is affected by the path of the US dollar price. According to forex market trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, has risen towards the 108.00 peak, the highest for the dollar index in two years. The performance of the US dollar came as financial markets continue to assess the expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s policy after their hawkish forecasts last week.
The median forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated a reduction in US interest rates by 50 basis points for the entire year 2025. Meanwhile, maintaining interest rates at levels much higher than previously expected. In contrast, cautious signals were given following meetings of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swedish Central Bank, in addition to a more severe-than-expected cut by the Swiss National Bank and an unexpected contraction in gross domestic product in Canada, which pressured currencies in the US dollar index.
Also, the rise of the US dollar has reduced expectations of capital inflows from the United States due to additional tariff threats from President-elect Trump. Finally, the dollar received support from President Biden’s approval of the new congressional funding bill, avoiding a government shutdown before the end of the year.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Continue to Gain
According to recent trading, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to above the 4.55% threshold, approaching a seven-month high of 4.58% recorded on December 19, as financial markets continue to assess the extent of cuts that the Federal Reserve will offer in 2025. Forecasts indicate that policymakers expect fewer interest rate cuts than the market expected in 2025, indicating caution about the risks of rising inflation and reducing demand for fixed-income assets.
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Overall, fears of rising inflation have doubled due to additional tariff threats from Trump, including barriers imposed on Mexico, the European Union, and China. At the same time, investors have also moved away from safe-haven bonds after the US government approved the spending bill and prevented a government shutdown at the end of the year.
Trading Tips:
The gold market will remain bullish, and don’t forget that the price of gold bullion has risen by more than 27% during 2024. Also, it is on its way to achieving its largest annual gain since 2010, driven by the easing of US policy, strong demand for safe assets, and continued purchases by global central banks.
Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
By monitoring recent performance and according to the forecasts of gold analysts today, the gold price may remain on its upward trajectory. The bulls’ eyes will remain strongest on the daily chart towards the psychological resistance of $2,700 per ounce. Conversely, and according to recent performance.
Technically, gold prices are moving towards new buying levels, the most suitable of which is currently $2,585 and $2,566 per ounce. As we always emphasize, avoid taking risks and activate take-profit and stop-loss orders to ensure the safety of the trading account from any sudden price reversals. Finally, we still note that liquidity in the markets this week will be very weak, and therefore movements will be calm and unstable.
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