• Trump is considering emergency measures to facilitate a new tariff program. 

• An unexpected build in US crude inventories weighed on oil prices.

• US data showed a drop in private job growth.

The USD/CAD forecast shows renewed Trump tariff fears, which have weighed on the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, the US dollar has regained its shine due to a rally in Treasury yields. At the same time, market participants eagerly await employment figures from Canada and the US. 

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The Canadian dollar gave up its gains on Wednesday and Thursday as traders worried about looming tariffs on Canada’s exports. Reports showed that Trump was considering emergency measures to facilitate a new tariff program. This move came after previous reports that the new administration’s tariffs would only target critical sectors. However, Trump maintains his aggressive outlook. He proposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada, which would hurt the local economy. 

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Meanwhile, the loonie also fell due to a decline in oil prices. Notably, data on Wednesday revealed an unexpected build in US crude inventories, indicating weak demand last week. 

On the other hand, the tariff news boosted US Treasury yields, supporting the greenback. Additionally, traders digested reports showing a drop in private job growth and an unexpected decline in initial jobless claims. All focus has shifted to the upcoming monthly employment figures from Canada and the US.

USD/CAD key events today

Market participants do not expect any key releases from Canada or the US today. Therefore, the price might consolidate ahead of employment figures from both countries.

USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls return to retest the 1.4400 resistance

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has risen to retest the 30-SMA after making a new low near the. The previous bullish trend paused at the 1.4450 key resistance level and entered a period of consolidation. 

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Meanwhile, the RSI made a bearish divergence, showing bulls were losing enthusiasm. As a result, bears strengthened enough to trigger a sharp swing below the 30-SMA, which paused at the 1.4300 support level. 

The price has rebounded to retest the 30-SMA resistance and the 1.4400 key psychological level. If bears are ready to take charge, USD/CAD will soon bounce lower to revisit the 1.4300 support level. A break below this level would signal the start of a bearish trend. Moreover, it would allow the price to reach the 1.4201.

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