Created on December 26, 2024

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• The US dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of life.
• At this point, if we can break above the crucial ¥158 level, then it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of upward momentum, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move to the ¥162 level.
• This is an area that has been important a couple of times, so I think this makes a lot of sense.

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Short-term pullbacks at this point in time will continue to see plenty of support, and I think the ¥155 level continues to offer a short-term floor in the market. Interest rate differential favors the US dollar which is something that you should not forget anytime soon, as the US dollar continues to see interest rates climb. Despite what the Fed’s doing, most traders focus on what the Fed says, but what you really need to do is pay attention to what the bond markets do. Now we have pretty high yields in the US, ten-year especially. So that continues to make the US dollar like a wrecking ball against most other currencies, and especially the Japanese yen, which has a whole litany of problems by itself.

Bank of Japan? Not a Factor.

The Bank of Japan recently raised rates a bit. We’ve completely turned around since then, and now it looks like we are going to continue to climb again. A break above the ¥158 level could open up the possibility of a move to the ¥162 level. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this USD/JPY market, and it’s very possible we may go much higher before it’s all said and done, as the Federal Reserve looks like they will be a little bit more hawkish in 2025 than people had anticipated.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.