Created on December 20, 2024

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• During my daily analysis of the major currency pairs, the USD/JPY pair is one of the first things that I pay close attention to, as the Japanese yen is on the hot seat, while the US dollar is by far the strongest currency around the world as of late.
• This is the “Ground Zero” of what’s happened over the last couple of days, as the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve both have had central bank interest rate decision.
• Keep in mind that the market continues to pay close attention to the idea of the “carry trade.”

Bank of Japan

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It looks like the Bank of Japan really couldn’t do anything, and therefore I think you got a situation where the Federal Reserve completely dropped the ball during the press conference, as Jerome Powell gave one of his worst press conferences of his tenure. Because of this, we’ve seen a lot of uncertainty around the US dollar, and it launched against most currencies.

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However, since then we have seen the Bank of Japan coming go, so it’s very interesting that we have seen this market break out above the crucial ¥156.50 level. The 156.50 again level is an area that previously had been a swing high, so the fact that we broke above it suggests that we probably have further to go. The size of the candlestick is very impressive, so with this I’ve got interest in trying to get long yet again.

Short-term pullbacks should continue to attract a lot of attention, and I think you’ve got a scenario where traders will be doing everything, sleep they can take advantage of a little bit of value on the pullback. In fact, I just don’t see a situation where I would get short of this pair, because we have only seen more enthusiasm to the upside, despite the fact that we are heading into the holiday season. This is the time of year where you would anticipate that markets would stop moving, but we have found quite the opposite here.

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